International Institute of Forecasters

Issue 13: Assessing Forecastability

Preview, Len Tashman
Forecastability: Insights from Physics, Graphical Decomposition, and Information Theory, Peter Catt
Toward a More Precise Definition of Forecastability, John Boylan
How to Assess Forecastability, Stephan Kolassa

Issue 12: Forecast Process Improvement

The Forecasting Mantra: A Holistic Approach to Forecasting and Planning, Alec Finney and Martin Joseph
Sales Forecasting: Improving Cooperation Between the Demand People and the Supply People, Tom Wallace and Bob Stahl
Book reviews of : Sales & Operations Planning - Best Practices: Lessons Learned From Worldwide Companies, John Mello and Joseph McConnell

Issue 11: Benchmarking of Forecast Accuracy

Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy, Stephen Kolassa
Measuring Improvement in Forecast Accuracy: A Case Study, Robert Rieg
Commentary on Benchmarking, Teresa McCarthy, Donna Davis, Susan Golicic, and John Mentzer
Commentary on Benchmarking, Jim Hoover, /Foresight/ Software Editor

Issue 11: Forecast Process Improvement (Operational Forecasting)

Overcoming Challenges in Operational Forecasting Projects, Ian Watson-Jones
Commentaries on Overcoming Challenges in Operational Forecasting Projects, Patrick Wader and Mark Moon

Issue 9: Prediction Markets for Pharmaceuticals and Beyond

A Guide to Practical Adoption in the Pharmaceutical Industry, Carol Gebert
Defining Events and Motivating Participation, Andreas Graefe
A Primer on Prediction Markets, Joe Miles

Issue 8: Delphi and Prediction Markets

A Guide to Delphi, Gene Row
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared, Kesten Green, J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graef

Issue 7-8: Cost of Forecast Error: New Perspectives Issues

Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error - A Practical Example, Peter Catt (Issue 7)
Key Assumptions in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error, John Boylan
Use of the Normal Distribution in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error, Thomas Willemain
Supply Risk and Costing Challenges, Michael Smith
Lost Sales and Customer Service, Scott Roy
Reply to Cost of Forecast Error Commentaries, Peter Catt

Issue 6: Modeling Seasonality in Short Time Series

Minimum Sample Size Requirements For Seasonal Forecasting Models, Rob Hyndman and Andrey Kostenko
Forecasting Short Seasonal Time Series Using Aggregate and Analogous Series, Michael Leonard
Seasonality: Shrinkage Procedures For Small Samples, Dan Williams
Constant vs. Changing Seasonality, Philip Hans Franses

Issue 5: Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings?

How to Make Better Forecasts and Decisions: Avoid Face-to-Face Meetings, J. Scott Armstrong
Commentary: Forecasting Meetings Are Really Not About Forecasting, Marcus O'Connor
Commentary: A Depersonalized Interactive Process is the Key, Joe Smith
Commentary: Business Objectives, Forecasters and Meetings, Jamilya Kasymova and Catalin Vieru
How Practitioners Can Use Evidence-Based Findings: Reply to Commentaries, J. Scott Armstrong

Issue 5: Forecasting with SAP

Introduction, Ulrich Küsters
The New SAP Forecasting and Replenishment Solution: Is it an Improvement Over mySAP ERP?, Norman Götz and Carsten Köhler
Forecasting for Worldwide Supply Chain Processes with SAP's APO, Christoph Seeger

Issue 5: Forecast Model Building - The Practical Issues

To Include or Exclude an Explanatory Variable: Beware of Rules of Thumb, Peter Kennedy.
Commentary: Testing Multiple Periods Ahead May Be the Real Need, Roy Pearson
Reply to Peter Kennedy, William Bassin

Issue 4: Forecasting for Call Centers

Nano Forecasting: Forecasting Techniques for Short-Term Intervals, Jay Minnucci
Forecasting Call Flow in a Direct Marketing Environment, Peter Varisco
Forecasting Weekly Effects of Recurring Irregular Occurrences, Dan Rickwalder
Commentary on Call Center Forecasting, Tim Montgomery

Issue 4: Forecast-Accuracy Metrics for Inventory Control and Intermittent Demand

Measuring Forecast Accuracy: Omissions in Today's Forecasting Engines and Demand-Planning Software, Jim Hoover
Forecast-Accuracy Metrics for Intermittent Demands: Look at the Entire Distribution of Demand, Tom Willemain
Accuracy and Accuracy-Implication Metrics for Intermittent Demand, John Boylan and Aris Syntetos
Another Look at Forecast-Accuracy Metrics for Intermittent Demand, Rob J. Hyndman

Issue 3: The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008

The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008, by Alan J. Lichtman
Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to the American Presidential Elections, by J. Scott Armstrong and Alfred Cuzan

Issue 3: Spotlight on Excel for Data Analysis and Forecasting

On The Use and Abuse of Microsoft Excel, Paul J. Fields
The Unreliability Of Excel's Statistical Procedures, Bruce McCullough
Incorrect Nonlinear Trend Curves In Excel, Rick Hesse

Issue 2: The Organizational Politics of Forecasting

Six Steps to Overcome Bias, Elaine Deschamps
The Impact of Corporate Culture on Sales Forecasting, John E. Mello
How to Assess the Effect of Organizational Politics on the Efficiency of the Forecasting Process, Michael Gilliland
Commentaries by Donald Tynes and Emmet Jones

Issue 1: When and How Should Statistical Forecasts be Judgmentally Adjusted

Introduction, Nada Sanders
How to Integrate Management Judgment with Statistical Forecasts, Paul Goodwin
Judgmental Adjustment: A Challenge for Providers and Users of Forecasts, Dilek Önkal and M. Sinan Gönül
Relative Merits of Different Ways of Combining Judgment With Statistical Forecasts, Nigel Harvey
Commentaries by Anthony Lee, Astra-Zeneca and Lucy Kjolso, Brooks Sports

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Issue 13
Issue 12
Issue 11
Issue 10
Issue 9
Issue 8
Issue 7
Issue 6
Issue 5
Issue 4
Issue 3
Issue 2
Issue 1

Issue 13
1.	The Impact of Sales Forecast Game Playing on Supply Chains, John Mello
2.	Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Ira Sohn
3.	Forecasting Sharp Changes, Roy Batchelor *
4.	Book Review: Future Savvy, David Orrell *
5.	Forecaster in the Field: Rob Dhuyvetter *

Issue 12
1.	The World of Forecasting - Predicting Recessions: A Regression (Probit) Model Approach
2.	Hot New Research Column – New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts, Paul Goodwin *
3.	Forecast Accuracy Measurement: * Percentage Error Metrics: What denominator?, Kesten Green and Len Tashman Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote, Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred Cuzan and Randall Jones Forecasting Performance of Regression Models in the 2008 Presidential Election, Randall Jones and Alfred Cuzan

Issue 11
1.	Software Review: Forecast Pro Unlimited, by Ulrich Küsters And Janko Thyson
2.	Note from the Editor: The Fall 2008 Issue, Len Tashman *
3.	Book Review: Super Crunchers by Ian Ayres, Roy Batchelor *
4.	The World of Forecasting, Randall Jones and Alfred Cuzan *
5.	Forecaster in the Field – Mohsen Hamoudia *

Issue 10
1.	Looking at Tomorrow Today – The What, Why and How of Futuring for Forecasters, Roy Pearson
2.	Lessons Learned – Reflections from 25 Years as a Forecasting Consultant, Antonio Garcia-Ferrer
3.	Life-Cycle Forecasting for New Products – The HP Approach to Forecasting Printer Demand, Jerry Shan, Matthew Reimann, and Fereydoon Safai
4.	Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections – A Brief Overview, Randall Jones and Alfred Cuzan
5.	Book Review: David Orrell’s The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction, Paul Fields *
6.	Forecast Accuracy Measurement: Should We Define Forecast Error as e=F-A or A-F? Kesten Green and Len Tashman *
7.	Foresight Archives: The Organizational Politics of Forecasting *
8.	HOT New Research Column: A Quick Tour of Tourism Forecasting, Paul Goodwin *

Issue 9
1.	Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris’s Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning, reviewed by Roy Batchelor
2.	Hot New Research Column: Predicting the Demand for New Products, Paul Goodwin
3.	The Value of Information Sharing in the Retail Supply Chain: Two Case Studies, Tonya Boone and Ram Ganeshan
4.	Innovations in Sales Forecasting for Large-Scale Retailers, Bruce Andrews, James Bennett, Lindsey Howe, Brooks Newkirk, and Joseph Ogrodowczyk
5.	Monte Carlo Simulation/Risk Analysis on a Spreadsheet: Review of Three Software Packages, Sam Sugiyama
6.	“Been There, Done That”: Perils, Pitfalls, and Promises of Long-Term Projections, Ira Sohn

Issue 8
1.	Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting: Lessons from Four Companies, Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin
2.	How to Project Patient Persistency, Ka Lok Lee, Peter Fader, Bruce Hardie
3.	The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008, Allan Lichtman
4.	Bayesian Forecasting Methods for Short Time Series, Enrique de Alba, Manuel Mendoza

Issue 7
1.	Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error - A Practical Example, Peter Catt
2.	An Expanded Prediction-Realization Diagram for Assessing Forecast Errors, Roy Pearson
3.	Use Scaled Errors Instead of Percentage Errors in Forecast Evaluations, Lauge Valentin
4.	S&OP, Forecasting, and the Knowledge-Creating Company, John Mello and Terry Esper
5.	Decision-Directed Forecasting for Major Disruptions: The Impact of 9/11 on Las Vegas Gaming Revenues, Stephen Custer and Don Miller
6.	How to Get Good Forecasts from Bad Data, Ellen Bonnell
7.	The Forecaster as Leader of the Forecasting Process, James Borneman
8.	Forecasting Software: A Progress Report for the First Seven Years of the 21st Century, Jim Hoover
9.	Supermarket Forecasting - Check Out Three New Approaches, Paul Goodwin

Issue 6
1.	Confessions of a Pragmatic Forecaster, Chris Chatfield
2.	Forecast Uncertainty and Monte Carlo Simulation, Sam Sugiyama
3.	Advantages of the MAD/MEAN Ratio Over the MAPE, Stephan Kolassa and Wolfgang Schutz
4.	Recent Studies on Forecasting Know-How, Training and Information Sharing, Paul Goodwin
5.	Forecasting the 2006 Democratic Party Takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives, Carl Klarner and Stan Buchanan

Issue 5
1.	Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts, Rogelio Oliva and Noel Watson

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