Aggregate diffusion forecasting models in marketing: A critical review

Since the 1960s, a number of new product diffusion models have been developed and applied in marketing. This paper reviews the theoretical origins, specifications, data requirements, estimation procedures, and pre-launch calibration possibilities for these aggregate models. Following a critical review of both the problems and the potential benefits of these models, a number of suggestions are made with respect to future academic and applied research involving new product diffusion forecasting.