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Volume 23 Issue 2 (April-June 2007)

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The Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting
edited by U. Heilemann, H. Stekler

Quantifying the quality of macroeconomic variables

Oller, L.E. , Teterukovsky, A.
Pages 205-217
Abstract

Methods to quantify the quality of a macroeconomic statistical time series are presented. The integrated measures are based on a combination of how predictable the series is and how much its statistics need to be revised. An ''information window'' based on signal-to-noise ratios provides a snapshot of the quality. A formulation of information in terms of entropy is also considered. Our approach allows testing of whether a forecast or a preliminary value is informative. Concavity and monotonic convergence of information accrual are discussed.

Keywords: Statistical quality , Forecast errors , Revisions , Information measures , Entropy
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.01.006
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