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International Symposium on Forecasting
Boston
June 24-27, 2012

Volume 23 Issue 2 (April-June 2007)

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The Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting
edited by U. Heilemann, H. Stekler

Leading indicators for euro area government deficits

Perez, J.J.

Pages 259-275

Abstract

I evaluate the usefulness of a set of intra-year fiscal indicators in forecasting General Government fiscal deficits in the euro area and most of its member countries. The indicators are mainly based on monthly and quarterly Public Accounts' figures. The indicators anticipate annual fiscal deficits, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms.

Keywords: [jel] C53, [jel] E6, [jel] H6, Leading indicators, Fiscal forecasting and monitoring, General Government deficit, European Monetary Union

FULL TEXT LINK

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.01.007

ONLINE SUPPLEMENTS

data and code (Zip file, 07-23-2-perez.zip)

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