Volume 12 Issue 1 (March-May 1996)
Probability Judgmental Forecasting
edited by G. Wright, M.J. Lawrence, F. Collopy
Good probabilistic forecasters: The 'consumer's' perspective
There is an established literature describing how probabilistic forecasts, and hence forecasters, should be evaluated. The present paper takes a different and heretofore neglected perspective on evaluation. It addresses how those who receive and use probabilistic predictions-forecast 'consumers'-appraise these assessments. Results indicate that there are reliable and important differences between subjective and formal evaluation principles. Among the distinctive features of common subjective appraisal strategies are: (a) an emphasis on judgments being categorically 'correct'; (b) special attention to forecast extremeness; (c) the desire for good explanations of forecasts; and (d) the sensitivity of appraisals to how pertinent information is displayed to the evaluator. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.