A smooth transition periodic autoregressive (STPAR) model for short-term load forecasting

This paper compares the short-term load performance of several forecasting models, including a new class of nonlinear models known as smooth transition periodic autoregressive (STPAR) models. A model building procedure is developed for the STPAR model, along with a linearity test against smooth transition periodic autoregressive behaviour. The predictive ability of the STPAR model is evaluated against alternative load forecasting models using load data from the Australian electricity market.