Modeling and forecasting short-term electricity load: A comparison of methods with an application to Brazilian data
Soares, L.J., Medeiros, M.C.
Pages 630-644
AbstractThe goal of this paper is to describe a forecasting model for the
hourly electricity load in the area covered by an electric utility located
in the southeast of Brazil. A different model is constructed for each hour
of the day. Each model is based on a decomposition of the daily series of
each hour in two components. The first component is purely deterministic
and is related to trends, seasonality, and the special days effect. The
second is stochastic, and follows a linear autoregressive model. Nonlinear
alternatives are also considered in the second step. The multi-step
forecasting performance of the proposed methodology is compared with that
of a benchmark model, and the results indicate that our proposal is useful
for electricity load forecasting in tropical environments.
Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, Time series, Seasonality, Linear models, SARIMA, Time-series decomposition
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