Judgmental aspects of forecasting

Judgment permeates any forecasting process. It is also subject to systematic study. Considering judgment as an understandable phenomenon allows access to the research literature examining judgments in other contexts and to the research methodologies needed to study the judgments needed for specific forecasting tasks. Such research can clarify how much forecasts are to be trusted and how forecasts might be improved (by evaluating and improving their judgmental component). Indeed, just identifying where judgment enters a forecast can make it more useful. The approach outlined here offers a complement both to seeing 'judgmental forecasting' as an irreducible whole and to focusing primarily on a few judgmental subtasks (e.g., assessing confidence intervals). It argues that such focused empirical study can be profitably performed on other subtasks, creating a more comprehensive picture of judgment.