Election cycles and electoral forecasting in Italy, 1994-2008

Research on pre-1994 Italian politics has paid little attention to the study of popularity functions and the forecasting of electoral results. With the enactment of a new electoral law, the dramatic change in Italy's party system and the resulting alternation in government of different political coalitions, public opinion approval of the government has acquired a greater political and electoral relevance. This paper, after analysing government approval series between 1994 and 2008, discusses how government approval influences electoral outcomes in the Italian Second Republic, and also how it can be fruitfully employed in forecasting models.