Illusions in regression analysis
Soyer and Hogarth's article, ''The Illusion of Predictability,'' shows that the diagnostic statistics that are commonly provided with regression analyses lead to confusion, reduced accuracy, and overconfidence. Even highly competent researchers are subject to these problems. This overview examines the Soyer-Hogarth findings in light of prior research on the illusions associated with regression analysis. It also summarizes various solutions that have been proposed over the past century. These solutions would enhance the value of regression analysis.