Antonio
Garcia-Ferrer

What is your current position?
I am Professor of Econometrics at the Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Spain.  On May 1, I took office as the President of the International Institute of Forecasters.

What is your education background and where has your career been spent?
I received my BA in Economics at the UAM, Spain in 1973 and a PhD in Economics at UC Berkeley in 1977.  Most of my career has been devoted to research and teaching, covering several universities and research centers including the University of Chicago and Lancaster University, UK.

When and why did you join the IIF?
Once forecasting became important to my research, joining the IIF was a logical step.  I have been a member of the Institute for about 20 years.

What drew you to forecasting?
Working as an econometrician, I thought that good forecasts would follow automatically from a good description of the economy.  But it did not take too much time for me to realize that this was not so.  Forecasting then became the main target of my research.

I discuss the evolution of my forecasting career in a new biographical article for the Summer 2008 issue of Foresight.  It is called, Lessons Learned: Reflections from 25 years as a Forecasting Consultant.

Do academic and consulting activities reinforce or interfere with each other?
My work as an independent forecasting consultant began in 1980. I use the word independent here to emphasize that my consulting activity was done my way; that is, choices and judgments made were my own. Although I had not anticipated it, my consulting experiences made meaningful contributions to my research, a large portion of which has dealt with issues that I discovered through my consulting activities. Access to fresh data, either raw or conveniently disguised, from the companies I worked with proved to be a blessing in testing theories and implementing “controlled” experiments. I feel that I have had the best of both worlds, and I have enjoyed both worlds enormously

Website/Links
Antonio Garcia-Ferrer

Rob Dhuyvetter

What is your current job?
Management Science Analyst with the J.R. Simplot Company. Our group works as an internal consulting team, constructing and applying mathematical models to aid the company in decision making. My focus is on statistical analysis, including the formation of forecasts used throughout the company.

How did your forecasting career start?
I always enjoyed teaching and studying statistical concepts. While teaching a college statistics class for engineers, I was able to take a few classes concentrating on statistical forecasting techniques including time-series, regression, and Box Jenkins. After receiving my Master’s in Industrial Engineering, one of the first tasks I was assigned when joining the J.R. Simplot Company was to review forecasting processes and look for ways to increase the usefulness of the statistical baseline forecast and its value to the process. Our group continues to generate monthly baseline forecasts, annual forecasts to aid in long-term decision making, and is always on the lookout for ways we can improve forecasting processes.

What attracted you to the forecasting field?
I have always been interested in statistics, and appreciate the value a good forecast can bring to a company. I like that forecasting is forward looking— proactive versus reactive. Forecasting gives me a chance to be on the front line of changes happening throughout the company.

What have been your career highlights?
Since I’m a teacher at heart, the opportunities to be a presenter at forecasting conferences have been very rewarding. I have also been fortunate to have been published in Foresight (October 2005 article “Managerial Judgment: Best as an Input to the Statistical Forecasting Process), and privileged to have collaborated with very talented people. I view my success by the success of my "customers," and am pleased to have been part of several significant forecasting projects.

Reflect on the challenges of being a forecaster.
Numerous modifications to a process/procedure begin with a change in the forecast; in many cases, variation from the norm is not always seen as positive and is often resisted. Forecasters will continue to struggle with the influence of company politics in the overall framework of a forecast structure.

Another challenge facing today’s forecasters involves our faster-paced business environment.

Forecasters are being asked to construct more timely projections in order to utilize a forecast’s full value, but not react with knee-jerk responses to every change reported. The days of the long, multiple-cycle, complete time-series are in decline; today’s forecasters are increasingly dealing with short life cycles and lumpy, intermittent data.

Tell us about your personal life and interests outside of work.
I am lucky enough to be living about 25 miles outside of Boise, and enjoying all that the great outdoors here in Idaho has to offer. I have been married to my lovely wife Karen for going on 15 years, and we have three great kids between the ages of 6 and 13. Most of my free time revolves around the kids’ activities, including coaching football and basketball, working with the horses for 4H, reading and helping with homework, and our latest endeavor, trap and target shooting. The family also takes time to enjoy the mountains with camping, fishing, and rafting. Any time left over goes into doing chores involved with hobby farming.

Contact info:
Rob Dhuyvetter,
J.R. Simplot Company